MLB 2020 Draft Breakdown: Biggest Value Picks
In this article, we break down our 4 biggest value picks of the draft and why we think so.
Tanner Burns: RHP Auburn
Throughout our pre-draft process Burns checked every box. We ranked him in our Tier 1 for collegiate RHP’s. That included a 1st round grade and Top 5 positioning. When you include LHP’s and HS arms he still placed in our Top 10 overall. Burns produced a great track record in the SEC and an elite level pitch arsenal. The draft rolled around and the Indians scooped him up in the CBA pick #36. This very well could be the best value pick in the draft when we look back at the 2020 class.
Burns was featured in three of our pre-draft articles for his FF and SL. We also thought he would be a perfect fit for the Orioles in our all pitcher mock draft. He was able to leave Auburn with a 2.86 ERA in 36 career starts. He also tacked on 210 K’s in 188.2 IP. All impressive numbers in the SEC. We also saw great improvement in his pitches while at Auburn. His biggest limiting factor is his 6-0 frame that does not offer much projection. That is the biggest reason he fell out of the 1st round.
So, what does his arsenal look like? Well, he has a 93 mph FF that has a lot of life to it and a 60 grade SL that produces large amount of swing and misses. Who emphasizes both things in their big-league pitching staff? That answer is easy and you can look no further than the Cleveland Indians. This is a match made in heaven. Bieber and Clevinger fit this vertical movement and SL usage role that Burns falls right into. Burns also shows the ability to throw a CH and a CB that will be a great out pitch to a LHH. Burns provides the Indians a floor of a #3 starter. He can also develop in their system and see a 1-2 mph tick on his FF that already has rising life to it.
There were 21 players in 2019 that had a positively graded FF and SL according to Fangraphs. Those 21 players averaged 4.6 WAR amongst them. This is right around a #2 starter level. The players that had a 10+ pitch value in both averaged 6.3 WAR, which is well above #1 starter status. In this draft class Max Meyer may be the only player that has a better FF/SL combo. Meyer went #3 overall to the Miami Marlins. So, when we look at potential value that the Indians received for the #36 pick, we can use some of the principle Driveline put out in articles and combine them with the info we have looked at from Fangraphs.
If Burns reaches his floor of a #3 starter, he will create $42 million value for the Indians. If he can have a positive value in his FF and SL that creates $79 million in value. Now, if the Indians can continue to develop the FF/SL and get the most out of Burns he will give them a return of $100+ million. This is quite the range, but we believe that Burns will give them a nice return and be a staple in their rotation for years.
Burns does not have the premium velocity of Max Meyer or the build of Emerson Hancock/Cade Cavalli. However, he has a above average pitch arsenal and a making of a premium combo in his FF/SL that has proven success at the MLB level. This was a great value pick for the Cleveland Indians who have a great track record at developing pitchers.
Casey Martin: SS Arkansas
Martin had a dramatic fall to the 3rd round after years of 1st round hype. Martin hit .345 as a freshman at Arkansas and saw his avg drop to .286 in his sophomore year. He did lead the team with nine homers in SEC play as a sophomore and saw his avg rise to .295. Having great SEC success helps propel you through the lower minors quickly. Martin did see some issue at SS and his future may not be on the INF. He possesses good speed and will fit in the OF especially with his power potential and 70 grade speed. Martin has a knack for barreling balls, but poor swing decisions lead to bad contact and many strikeouts.
So, we can see why Martin fell to the 3rd round. He has major concerns at his position and making enough contact. However, its not as if the INF’s that went higher did not have similar concerns. When looking at Martin’s swing you can see where the juice or swing and miss comes from. He has a leg lift that that provide some major. However, it also causes a lot of movement in his hips. He rises, then falls as he begins his swing, never actually keeping his head and body still and constantly changing levels. He also does not do a great job at gathering tension in his lead arm during that big load. Poor tension often results in more of a “hands first” swing that limits adjustability. The combination of these factors leads us to believe that Martin has plenty of low hanging fruit to improve those contact and chase rates. On the positive side, Martin shows present bat speed, a good frame, and the ability to hit the ball hard in the air often (something coveted in the big leagues these days). Improving swing decisions can be a tough thing to do, but we believe he is a couple swing fixes away from exploding at the professional level.
There were 13 SS’s taken in front of Martin in the draft. Obviously, not all will stick as SS, but there are not many players that he does not stack up with outside of the top 2 taken. That provides great value for the Phillies at the 87th pick. Martin will also receive a over the slot bonus and that is why some teams might have passed on him after the 1st. The Phillies would have had him in play if they had a 2nd round pick as well. The ability to stick up the middle at either SS or CF provides the Phillies great flexibility when looking at the future.
Jake Eder: LHP Vanderbilt
Jake Eder went in the 4th round, pick number 104 overall to the Miami Marlins. In our eyes this is a phenomenal pick. Elder checks off very similar boxes to guys drafted in the first round:
High level of competition? Check
Can run it up to 95? Check
Plus secondary pitch? Check
Projectable frame? Check
There are two boxes that he doesn’t check off; reliever, and lack of consistency. The knock of Eder has been that although he can run it up to 97mph, he has also had games where he sat 90-91mph. He also had plenty of days where he lacked feel for his off speed pitches. Looking over the course of his career, the K/BB ratio of roughly 2-1 also stands out as a red flag.
However, when trying to find value in the fourth round, we think it’s more than worth taking a flyer on a pitcher like this for 2 reasons. First, Eder does several things very well in his delivery. He has good tempo, timing, and is able to get great separating on front foot contact.
This is a quality we see in a lot of high level arms that are able to maintain a fluid delivery and what can sometimes seem like “effortless” velocity. This position also needs into the next landmark in the delivery he excels in (sometimes). He gets into a firm front just just after ball release which is usually indicative of proper timing earlier in the delivery, but also allows him to instantly decelerate. No doubt another reason why he is able to touch 97 at times.
With that said, there are two weakness that we see as well. Eder tends to get very rotational with his delivery. In the image below you can see his first move once he starts his drift is to extend that front leg. That then causes a big swinging motion and rotational direction to get his front leg back toward home plate.
Now is this inherently a bad thing? Not necessarily, but if we see a symptom of lack of command, then simple and repeatable is one of the first tools in our tool box that could help address that. The second issue we spot is at ball release. Eder has a tendency to cut across the ball rather than stay behind it. Possibly a byproduct of a rotational delivery, but still something that can be addressed none the less.
Why is this something to fix? Increasing pure back spin on a four-seam fastball can help improve the vertical run on an already electric fastball. That is why we actually view these delivery “flaws” as part of Eder’s upside. Let’s hypothesize that he gets into pro ball and the Marlins coaches are able to address these issues… you are now coupling an extra inch of vertical run on a fastball that now sits 94mph-95mph. That is a front line starter fastball. We recognize Eder isn’t a sure thing, development is always easier to write about. We think there is big time potential in this kid though and the Marlins may be a few tweaks and polishing away from getting a highly valuable piece to their future Big League club with the 104th overall pick.
Milan Tolentino: SS – Santa Margarita Catholic HS
Milan Tolentino went 20 picks after Eder (104 overall) to the Cleveland Indians in the 4th round. Middle infielders can be very hit and miss in the draft (one cracks our 3 biggest reaches list), especially high schoolers. At first glance there are some things that stick out as red flags. First one being a complete lack of power, especially with wood. Say what you want but hitting is the name of the game now and if you cannot hit you will not make it. With that said, the Indians have a history of drafting younger athletes that they believe can blossom in their system and we believe Tolentino falls in that category.
Few high school athletes have the combination of arm and feet at the SS position that Milan does. No one can question he could be a plus defender at the big-league level. That is not what intrigues us though. He has a solid frame, 6’1 and 180lbs. The Indians have made a big push over the last few years to be progressive in their development, especially when it comes to the weight room. Combine a good program with puberty and natural aging and there is no reason he can’t put on an additional 10lbs-15lbs as a high school draftee, which if done right can and will tremendously help his 30 grade power tool. The second reason he intrigues us is his swing, it isn’t good. He is not great at using his lower half, he has a lot of sway in his hips and head, and takes a very “hands first” approach to the ball. With all that said, he still managed to be the starting short stop for team USA and be an extremely productive hitter. What does that tell us? He has natural “bat to ball skills”, “barrel accuracy”, “good vision” whatever you would like to call it. It is a quality that is very difficult to teach in hitters and for that reason, we covet it when we see it. Not to mention, if he is able to make these swing changes then his production at the plate only gets better (power tool included). Finally, the last quality we like is one that only scouts can see and analytics may never be able to identity, his baseball instincts. Very few kids at his age have the rhythm and feel for the game that he shows on video and it can only get better with more games.
Identifying what you can improve as a club is extremely important, but knowing the tools/intangibles that can’t be improved may be more coveted in the draft. We believe the Indians did both with this pick and for that reason they receive plus value at this slot.