MLB 2020 Draft Breakdown: Biggest Reaches

In this article, we review what we feel to be the most overvalued picks in the 2020 MLB Draft

Nick Gonzales: SS, New Mexico St.

Coming in first on our list of reaches in the draft is Nick Gonzales.  We understand what can be alluring about him:

Over 1.000 career OPS

12 home runs in 16 games in 2020

Career OBP of almost .500

Career slugging of almost .700

These are video game numbers, especially from a middle infielder.  Make no mistake, Gonzales has talent we are not denying that.  Going in the top ten picks of the draft, the team is expecting production on the level of Austin Meadows, Michael Conforto, Aaron Nola, Andrew Benintendi, Anthony Rendon, Javy Baez, and Francisco Lindor.  These players are went between picks 6-10 in the previous 8 drafts (Gonzales went 7th).  It’s clear that the type of production expected from a top 10 overall pick is all star caliber, middle of the order bat (or front-line starter).  Our view is that Nick Gonzales does not fit that narrative for 2 reasons. 

First, as gaudy as his numbers are, he plays in what might be the most hitter friendly park in college baseball.  The park adjusted factor for New Mexico State is in the top 5 every year (along with New Mexico University).  What does this mean?  If you look at how hitters perform at New Mexico St. versus all other college parks, it clearly favors in the hitter.  It could be a combination of the field dimensions and air, but it’s a launching pad.  The exact math on adjusting Nick Gonzales stats is for a separate article, but if you adjust his stats to a league average ballpark, his career numbers fall to that of a 2nd-3rd rounder.  Those numbers alone are a little worrisome, but are they enough to say he was one of the biggest reaches of the draft?  Well, add on the fact that he played in the WAC conference.  A conference that includes the likes of Seattle Univ., Chicago State (which just defunded its baseball program), Utah Valley, and Grand Canyon.  Just how bad was their competition?  They ranked 234th in total strength of schedule in 2019 out of 299.  They were grouped with teams like Marist, Siena, NJIT.  Who are those schools you ask? Exactly. 

In 2019 New Mexico State played 4 power 5 conference teams.  In 2 games against Texas Tech, Nick went 1-7 with 0 BB and 3 SO.  In our eyes, the limited exposure to elite competition in NCAA and the inflated numbers due to the home ballpark are big risk factors.

The second reason he makes our list is his defensive ability.  If you believe Gonzales’ offensive numbers to be the true indicator of his abilities, then his defense makes no difference.  He is not a true short stop but could be an average defender at second.  You will absolutely make this sacrifice to have such surplus offensive value at a MIF position.  However, if you accept the premise that Gonzales’ numbers are inflated and his hit tool may be a 50 grade instead of 60 and power may be a 40 grade instead of 50, then you are now looking at an average defensive 2B (or below average SS) with average offensive tools.   Is this a bad combination to have as a prospect?  Absolutely not.  Obtaining league average tools overall could land a prospect in the big leagues one day as a platoon player, or a bottom of the order hitter on an average team.  Is this the kind of ROI we want from a top 10 overall pick?  Absolutely not. 

To put it simply, the combination of no true gauge for his offensive abilities and his very average defensive abilities lead us to believe that the amount of risk accompanying Nick Gonzales did not warrant a top 10 overall pick

Bryce Elder – RHP, Texas

Elder was selected in in the 5th round by the Atlanta Braves. He was the 5th to last pick and signed for $850K. This was $500K over slot value. That is equivalent to the slot value for the 73rd overall pick. This issue that we see is the players still on the board and the ability to get a steal with going over slot value. There were countless HS and Collegiate arms still on the board that potentially would have signed for $850K.

First, lets look at Elder’s pitch arsenal. In 2019 Elder presented a 4-pitch mix with a sharp SL and a CB with depth. He throws a 90 mph FT that does not present any horizontal break. His arsenal was very underwhelming but landed him in a lot of pre-season draft rankings. In 2020 he present the same 4-pitch mix with some improvement on his sharp SL. That looked to be his swing and miss pitch. He also had a good CH that tunnels well with his FT and can create swing and misses. He rarely threw his CB but could be a good pitch to a LHH. His FT gained a tick in velo, but again creates GB’s and little else. In 2020 his arsenal took a step forward but did not warrant a bonus that he signed.

Elder can compete with his SL and CH, but his FT looks to hold him back due to velocity and our desire to see a FF with rise. The Braves did have the 3rd highest GB% in the 2019 season so this does seem to be a system fit. The Braves also had a bottom 3rd FB velocity during that time. This seems to be a team that could get the most out of Elder’s arsenal. If you look at our all pitcher mock draft Elder fits all the criteria that had us selecting Trent Palmer for them.

Lets now look at Elder’s production at Texas. Elder was 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA in the 2019 season. He also did not show the control that scouts lauded him for. In 2018 he posted a 5.93 ERA out of the bullpen during conference play. Obviously the 2020 season did not make it into conference play, but he did not show much success in the Big 12 over his first two seasons.

We do like Elder as a system fit with the Braves. However, we cannot understand the over slot deal with the potential value left on the board with HS and Collegiate arms. Each arm presented a much higher ceiling even if there was some floor risks. The Braves system could have also used a HS bat to inject talent into their farm system. There does not look to be many high-level bats to make an impact 2022 or later.

With Elder’s pitch arsenal and above slot bonus, we see this as one of the bigger misfires during the draft. With only four picks during the draft the Braves could not afford to go over slot for a talent such as Elder. Yes, he does present a good floor and what they do approach wise. However, there was a lot of high-level prospects still on the board and we had Elder as a 6-8 round value.

Garrett Mitchell – OF, UCLA

Mitchell was selected by the Brewers with the 20th pick in the 1st round. He has not signed a bonus yet, but he is slotted at $3.24 million. What does Mitchell do well? There is no questioning his athleticism from a 6-3 frame. He has tremendous speed and ability to play CF. The Brewers also lack a high impact collegiate bat in their farm system. From the outside this looks like a great steal for the Brewers at #20. However, we have serious concerns with his hit tool to even take advantage of his defense.

Mitchell does not create the best launch angles and does not produce much exit velocity. They both seem to be very average currently and that is with aluminum bats and inferior competition out of conference. When looking at making contact and hitting the ball hard, Mitchell does not seem to excel. He looks to produce soft contact when attacked inside with most pitches in an arsenal.

Mitchell can get into good positions throughout his swing and meets a lot of check points. He keeps his head calm and creates a counter movement with his hands. We would like to see better hip hinge to create adjustability on the outside breaking balls. Mitchell has good tension across front shoulder at launch but we would like to see stable hips. We could imagine some low connection through launch because of the high number of GBs.

When we look to project Mitchell on the offensive side, we do not see him producing positive offensive value. According to Fangraphs, the avg CF produced -1.92 value on the offensive side. They did produce 1.3 value defensively. Only one team made the playoffs last season with a negatively graded glove in CF showing the importance of defensive ability. This makes a good case for Mitchell; however, six of the Top 10 teams in offensive production made the playoffs. We cannot see him developing enough pop or hitting for a high enough avg to be an everyday CF. The hit tool is crucial for a playoff team with their Centerfielders.

We believe Mitchell has a back of the 2nd or 3rd round value. A lot could have been done to manipulate the board and go for higher ceilings with their other four picks. Overall, the Brewers did not have a very appealing draft and it started with Mitchell in the 1st. Mitchell’s question with the hit tool should have been enough to push him out of the 1st.