MLB 2020 Draft Breakdown: First Round Grades
1. Detroit Tigers – Spencer Torkelson, 3B, Arizona St.
The Tigers pick up a special talent in Torkelson who looks to be a perennial all star at 1st or 3rd. At the end of the day he just needs to hit and he provides ample exit velocity that should be in the Top 10 on avg every year. He will travel fast through the affiliates and offers star power for a very lacking big-league roster.
Grade: A
2. Baltimore Orioles – Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
There is a lot in play with this pick outside of just the player. The $7.79m pick value may not all be used here and can be allocated to the 4th and 5th round picks. This is a key thought when looking at the five-round draft for the Orioles. There is no doubting Kjerstad as a player, but was he the best option on the board? He does provide a lot of production at a SEC school and again a good amount of exit velocity. For me, the move makes sense, picking a LHH with the power he provides and the savings in slot.
Grade: B
3. Miami Marlins – Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
Our pitcher #1 was not a surprise to go here to the Marlins. He was the first of six arms taken by the Marlins in one of my favorite drafts. In our all pitcher mock we had the Marlins selecting Meyer to give the big-league club a boost in velocity to go with their up and coming prospects. The Marlins attack with a FF/SL combo and no one in this draft class does that better than Meyer. This is a perfect fit and hopefully the Marlins do not have to touch him.
Grade A+
4. Kansas City Royals – Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Lacy immediately enters the minors as a Top 10 LHP in the game. He also fits in with the five collegiate arms already in the Royals system and atop their prospect rankings. He should easily meet them knocking at the door for the MLB. He does not exactly fit their system of GB’s and he also likes his CB over the Royals preferred SL. Id like to see the Royals maximize his talent and they look to be developing their collegiate arms quite nicely. You do wonder if passing on Austin Martin will haunt them down the line.
Grade: A
5. Toronto Blue Jays – Austin Martin, SS, Vanderbilt
The Blue Jays had potentially the best bat fall to them at #5. He looks to form one of the best young infields in a few years with Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and another talent in Groshans. Martin offers the best overall hitting talent in the draft and at a premium position. He can also play multiple positions fitting in with their young core. Their may be some sign ability issues with him dropping to #5, but hopefully the Blue Jays can real in this mega talent.
Grade: A+
6. Seattle Mariners – Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
In an earlier blog post we stated that the Mariners would be the floor for Hancock. They would not let this type of talent go bye. The system the Mariners have in place is producing some great results and Logan Gilbert is a perfect example. Like Gilbert, Hancock had a rough start to his Junior season. His stuff looked to regress and not create many swing and misses. Id like to see the Mariners focus more on a FF and develop his CH to provide a three-pitch mix. His SL is a good swing and miss pitch that will help him excel in the low minors. This is a good landing spot to get the most out of Hancock’s talent.
Grade: A-
7. Pittsburgh Pirates – Nick Gonzales, SS, New Mexico St.
Not many people thought Kjerstad would go before Gonzales allowing him to drop into the Pirates laps. For us, we would not have been shocked if the slide continued. There are questions that he can play SS. There are questions that he will even hit at the big-league level. He did put up video game numbers, but we question the competition and home ball park factor. We would not have spent a Top 15 pick on Gonzales but hopefully he proves us wrong.
Grade: C-
8. San Diego Padres - Robert Hassell III, OF, HS
The Padres have a wealth of riches on the pitching side so it makes sense to roll the dice on the HS hitting crop. However, was Hassell the best option? Four prep LHH’s went in the Top 20 and all four have a high ceiling. For us, Zac Veen offered the best all around package from skill set and frame. There is not certainty with HS picks and the Padres felt Hassell offered the best package with the hit tool. We just do not see the power that Veen or Hendrick could offer.
Grade: C
9. Colorado Rockies – Zac Veen, OF, HS
The Rockies have showed great success in drafting hitters and HS hitters at that. Veen is another in a long list that looks to succeed in hitter’s paradise. This LHH with a 6’4 frame offers great potential and value with the #9 pick. This FL prepster does not lack confidence and has a lot of favorable comps. Great system pick for the Rockies that can pick up for Arenado or Blackmon in the future
Grade: A
10. Los Angeles Angels – Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
As stated in our all pitcher mock draft, the Angles need someone that can make it to the majors quickly. This eliminates a lot of guys with extremely high ceilings and leaves you with a Detmers type arm. We are not a big fan of his potential, but he does fit what the Angels are looking to. He is also in a decent system at developing arms and he should breeze through the lower levels. In the long run he does not offer the star potential of some of the arms taken after him.
Grade C+
11. Chicago White Sox – Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
We mentioned in our all pitcher mock draft that the White Sox crave velocity and do not mind taking risks. Crochet fits both of those sentiments to a tee. This is a great spot to roll the dice on Crochet’s potential and see if you can find an ace. I would not rush him to the MLB in their win now approach. He may be a guy that can be a great weapon out of a pen in a postseason run in the future. He offers another high-end prospect in their improving system.
Grade: A-
12. Cincinnati Reds – Austin Hendrick, OF, HS
After going with experienced college players, the last two years the Reds went back to the HS well. They have no problem taking the risk with HS players and have a bunch littered in their prospect rankings. There is no denying Hendrick’s potential but at this point we would not taken the extreme risk. There were a lot of players with higher floors or guys that fit their development system. Hopefully the LHH can provide 30+ homers in their homer friendly environment.
Grade: C-
13. San Francisco Giants – Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
You can see what the catcher position means to the Giants with Buster Posey and taking Joey Bart a few years back. The Giants have Bailey’s teammate Will Wilson and now have another collegiate bat to develop along with last years pick Bishop. Bailey offers defensive skills that can provide a good backup to Bart or a starting role if they move Bart to keep his bat as strong as possible. The Giants can potentially get some savings on the slot value to allocate with their other six picks.
Grade: B
14. Texas Rangers – Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi St.
Some consider this the first reach in the draft, but we quickly fell in love with the fit. He offers another bat first collegiate pick to go with Jung and keeps the Rangers hands off a HS pitcher. Foscue checks a lot of boxes with his hitting and can provide good enough defense at second. We like the value too as they drafted seven spots after the Pirates and could have a better option in the MIF.
Grade: A-
15. Philadelphia Phillies – Mick Abel, RHP, HS
This is a great spot to take a risk on a high upside HS arm that has a great makeup to go along with his stuff. His frame allows room for growth to go along with his premium velocity. He was our best prep arm and offers great spin and a above avg SL. The Phillies can develop arms and this is a great home for Abel to develop and offer the Phillies another ace.
Grade: A+
16. Chicago Cubs – Ed Howard, SS, HS
Howard looks to be the best SS in the draft with uncertain futures at the position for Martin and Gonzales. He looks to be solid across the board and offer an extremely high floor. Howard is also a hometown kid that checks all the boxes. He will add size to his frame that will add more power in a couple years. For now, he looks to hit for a high avg at the lower levels.
Grade: A-
17. Boston Red Sox – Nick Yorke, 2B, HS
Hey, we have no problem getting your guy, especially in a shortened draft. There was a lot of speculation on what the Red Sox strategy was and as of now it looks like they wanted to make a run at a big name in the 3rd. Blaze Jordan looks like that answer. For us, this does not make much sense, but only time will tell. Yorke looks to be an offensive minded player and the Red Sox have a great track record with 1st round picks. We are solely not bought in with the names that were still on the board and other guys you could have done below slot deals with.
Grade: D+
18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
We love what the Diamondbacks did in the draft and we slated Liam Norris and Slade Cecconi to them in our all pitcher mock draft. The Diamondbacks are crushing their pitcher development and boast high level arms throughout their system. Jarvis is a great fit in their system and offers three avg pitches that look to improve. He throws too much in the zone for my liking, but he continues to improve and take major strides. This is a great pick, especially with what they did later in the draft.
Grade: A-
19. New York Mets – Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, HS
He possesses some great accolades and played high level HS ball at Harvard-Westlake. The Mets again went the HS route as they build up their farm system. The LHH offers good defense and the potential for growth. Nothing against Crow-Armstrong, we just do not trust the Mets development system to produce the most value here.
Grade: C-
20. Milwaukee Brewers – Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Mitchell offers + speed and a lot of questions with the bat. We do not believe he will hit enough to make a difference in the MLB. Would have liked to see them go in the pitching direction and build with the four high level arms at the top of their system. Mitchell could be a Corey Ray type pick with questions about being an everyday player.
Grade: D+
21. St. Louis Cardinals – Jordan Walker, 3B, HS
The Cardinals went with HS players with their first three picks and hopefully they can hit on at least one of them. Walker offers a massive frame at the hot corner with some power. He still needs to develop into his frame but this is a good spot to take a chance on a guy like Walker’s potential. They do have a lot of options in Gorman, Montero, and Nunez. I would have liked to see the Cardinals go back to the well for a collegiate arm.
Grade: B-
22. Washington Nationals – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
We predicted Cole Henry at this spot in our all pitcher mock draft who the Nationals took in the 2nd round. We are extremely high on the potential that Cavalli possesses and this is a perfect spot to take a guy like that. He offers premium velocity and potential for two above avg off-speeds. We do question his control, but the Nationals have proven to develop arms and think this is a perfect spot for Cavalli to grow into his own.
Grade: A
23. Cleveland Indians – Carson Tucker, SS, HS
The Indians have fared well in recent memory drafting HS players. Their development system is churning out high level players. Tucker could stick at SS and needs to add some pop. I like the value and the ability to produce at a premium position. The Indians have two options at SS in the minors in Freeman and Rocchio. There is no problem in adding to that depth.
Grade: B-
24. Tampa Bay Rays – Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS
The Rays need to rely on their player development system and have lost some key front office pieces. They have some high-level arms in their system and they just added another young piece. Bitsko was our #2 ranked prep arm and this was a great value for the Rays. At this point the key position players at CF and SS were taken so Bitsko offered the highest ceiling. He has a chance to have three above avg pitches and matches with their FF velocity and CB usage. This is a slam dunk pick and the right time to take a risk.
Grade: A+
25. Atlanta Braves – Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
The Braves are deep with arm talent at the MLB level with arms in the high minors that can make an impact. Its hard to pass up a mid-90’s LHP with potential and big stuff. He does not have a track record of success and was looking to prove it this season. We did expect Shuster to go this early but question the choice with some of the arms still on the board. This is a high reward arm that could find himself in the bullpen.
Grade: C+
26. Oakland Athletics – Tyler Soderstrom, C, HS
Soderstrom is a good value for the back end of the 1st with a premium position. He can be a hitting first backstop. Developing catchers is a hard thing to do and major league talent can be created from other positions. It will be interesting to see how the LHH catcher progresses and how he handles pitch calling. Hitting can fall by the wayside when looking at all aspects of catching.
Grade: B-
27. Minnesota Twins – Aaron Sabato, 1B, UNC
This is a prototypical Twins pick and fits what they are looking for in a player. He is a big bodied RHH that creates above avg exit velocities. For this point of the draft Sabato looks like a steal and a guy that will create a lot of value. He must hit and we think Sabato will be able to generate enough power to man 1B. Think this was a good system fit to go with their up the middle talent in the farm system.
Grade: A-
28. New York Yankees – Austin Wells, C, Arizona
Wells profiles as a bat first backstop and is in a good system to get the most out of his catching. The LHH profiles well with his strong exit velocities and looks to be a steal in a weak college hitting class. Like Sabato, Wells provides good value at the back of the 1st and hopefully can add offense at a premium position.
Grade: A-
29. Los Angeles Dodgers – Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
Probably our favorite pick of the first round from a value standpoint. Miller was extremely high on our board and landed with one of the best systems at developing arms. He looks to be another Buehler type steal for the Dodgers. Miller has the potential for three above avg pitches and a Fastball that sits mid-90’s. The Dodgers can also get the most out of his FF/FT blend.
Grade: A+
30. Baltimore Orioles – Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi St.
Westburg has a lot of potential but we question the swing decisions and his ability to make contact enough at the big-league level. He looks to be a fit for 3B as he matures and utilizes his power. Im not going to bet against the Orioles front office, but we know its hard to teach swing decisions. Westburg can provide good value at this spot with not many high-end college bats available.
Grade: B
31. Pittsburgh Pirates – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
The CBA seemed like the right fit for when Mlodzinski was going to go. We were not as high on him as other sources and I was surprised that they did not go with a HS arm like their past. We are not a fan of the GB emphasis of his pitches and the inconsistency he has shown in college. A lot of better options on the board at this point.
Grade: C-
32. Kansas City Royals – Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Most of the Royals bats struggled last season and prove to be inconsistent talents. Loftin looks to be more of a solid player with no loud tools. We are not sure he will hit enough to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Not the direction we would have went with a lot of high-end players still on the board.
Grade: C-
33. Arizona Diamondbacks – Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
We predicted this would be a good fit in our all pitcher mock draft. His pitches are right around avg currently but he offers so much potential on everyone. The Diamondbacks will allow him time to develop and get the most out of his stuff. They now have a deep group of 18-22-year-old pitchers that give the Diamondbacks options in the future.
Grade: A-
34. San Diego Padres – Justin Lange, RHP, HS
This is the perfect spot to take a HS arm, however, Lange would not have been our first option. There is a lot to like with Lange who has premium FF velocity and a nice developing frame. We think this is a reach with a lot of higher floors available. This could end up being a huge hit, but I am not taking the chance at #34.
Grade: C+
35. Colorado Rockies – Drew Romo, C, HS
Romo offers high end defense behind the dish and can hopefully develop enough at the plate to make use of Coors Field. You cannot knock the Rockies for sticking to a principle of taking HS bats and providing their system with youth and high upside players. There is not much in the way of college bats left and pitching is a tough proposition in Colorado.
Grade: B-
36. Cleveland Indians – Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
We are remarkably high on Burns and this is another one of our favorite picks on day 1. Burns checks every box with a three-year track record in the SEC and four above avg pitches. The Indians are a perfect fit as well. The only knock is his size, but that is no reason for Burns to last till the 36th pick. This is a steal and a great way to end day 1 for the Indians.
Grade: A+
37. Tampa Bay Rays – Alika Williams, SS, Arizona St.
We are not exceedingly high on Williams bat and would have liked to see the Rays make a splash with one of the high-end arms still available. Williams does offer a premium position and you can never have enough up the middle. However, you do have some long-term options there already.
Grade: C-