Overlooked Pitchers From The 2020 Season
In my first article, I examined the overlooked hitters from the 2020 season which you can find here. In this article, we will be doing the same but from the pitchers side. We will be looking at three starting pitchers that had a high left on base (LOB) percentage and LOB wins. LOB wins are an estimate of how many wins a pitcher has added because of stranding runners on base. It is calculated by considering different aspects of a pitcher’s game with baserunners, for example: controlling the running game, pitching differently with runners on, or pitching out of the stretch.
The reason I wanted to examine these metrics is because I wanted to see which pitchers were able to get out of trouble when they had men on base and how their ability to get hitters out in those situations turned into wins. It is important to note that LOB wins will be low because of the 60 game season, if you want a more realistic measure to a normal season (assuming the pitchers continued their success) then multiply their LOB wins by 2.7.
Before we begin, I wanted to show a scatterplot I created in R that shows the qualified pitchers LOB percentage on the x-axis and LOB wins on the y-axis. The pitchers that we will be talking about today are Chris Bassitt, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland.
The first pitcher we will analyze is Chris Bassitt of the Oakland A’s. The A’s had the second-best winning percentage in the AL and a big factor in this is was their +42 run differential. Bassitt was a big part of this success, leading the team in both LOB percentage at 85.6 and LOB wins at .9. One reason that Bassitt is overlooked could be because the A’s pitching staff is in the middle of the pack in standard pitching metrics. Another reason could be because he does not have the strikeout numbers that we often see from power pitchers today. Bassitt’s average fastball velocity of 92.9 by no means makes him a power pitcher, but he can get you out in other ways. In this time where home runs are abundant, Bassitt only has a HR/FB percent of 8.6. He also has a contact percentage of 78.6 and his average against is .231 meaning that hitters are swinging at his pitches but not doing any damage. If you want to see Bassitt’s pitching style and further proof of his ability, watch this video here.
The next pitcher I want to look at is Antonio Senzatela. He had a LOB percent of 79.6 and this led to a full 1.0 LOB win. Having a high LOB percentage is crucial for Antonio because he plays for the Rockies, whose stadium is notorious for giving up home runs. With Senzatela playing in Colorado, this could be why he is overlooked; no one expects the Rockies to have great pitchers. A big part of what makes Senzatela successful is his 50.8 percent GB rate, it is easy to not be affected by the long ball when balls are hit on the ground. His high GB rate also attributes to why he has a high LOB percent. The Rockies would be wise keeping a pitcher like Senzatela around because ground balls will play anywhere.
My final pitcher is also a member of the Colorado Rockies, Kyle Freeland. Kyle had a LOB percent of 76.3, however, this attributed to 1.1 LOB wins. Freelands LOB wins was highest in MLB, but how does a player with a lower LOB percent than many pitchers have the top LOB wins? Like Senzatela, Freeland has a high GB percentage of 51.5, so he does not give up a ton of homeruns. It is also important to note that Freelands batting average for balls in play was .305, this means that he allows a lot of hitters on base but does not permit the majority of them to score increasing his LOB wins. Freeland kept his ERA at 4.33 so he does allow runs to score just not the majority that reach base. One way Freeland can become an even better pitcher is if he keeps his pitches down in the zone and has an even higher GB percentage. Looking at his barreled balls, the majority were up in the zone and most of his whiffs were down in the zone. Coors Field is very unforgiving if you miss with a pitch up in the zone so if Freeland wants to be as successful as he can be he needs to throw a very high percentage of his pitches low in the zone.
A common trait among relief pitchers is being able to get out of tough situations with guys on base, this trait is also very valuable for starters because those hitters left on base lead to wins. In today’s game when home runs are a huge part of the game, pitchers need to train themselves to get out of situations with runners on base and limit the damage. The home run bug hits every pitcher eventually, it is best when there are no runners on base.
Written by Hayden House